Russian Fingers in the Kyrgyzstan Pie (how many will there be?)
Ethnic violence ravages Osh in the south of Kyrgyzstan. Placed in the crux of the national gerrymandering of ethnicities by the USSR is opening the Russian in Central Asia. Osh is far enough away from its bases as to warrant the relatively cool response.
But what the hell is going on in Kyrgyzstan? As far as what can be gleaned is the resistance of loyalists to the ousted former leader Kurmanbek Bakiyev has begun a campaign to challenge the interim leader Rosa Otunbayeva.
I am a little underwhelmed by this stratagem. For Bakiyev supporters the focus on the minority Uzbek population so close to the boarder is bound to require reaction and support from the other states in the region. Though Russia, as of now, have taken under advisement Otunbayeva’s calls for international assistance the situation will only rally international support facilitating the end to the violence.
Another point being that the machinations of Bakiyaev supporters have opened a window for Russia to gain a further foothold in the tiny nation. By fermenting unrest the pressure of this on a declared interim government will test the loyalties of the political and military classes to each other. If this risks a power struggle, then Russian leaders can have their choice on whom to support.
Russia appeared to welcome the change of leadership, but has let Bakiyev lumber around its ally Belarus since his ouster.
If continued low level violence is the norm Russia will feel this situation out and will present Otunbayeva with the following options: either let us in or we won’t help.
Russia has desired more sway in the former USSR member and the ability to come to the rescue of a fledgling government will allow Russia the functional connection to the power-brokers to exert influence to tip the US out of Kyrgyzstan eventually.
For Russia, the opportunity has presented a strategic opening for the expanding power over its regional domain. The question is the US being outplayed?